Preface

Claudia Sheinbaum's historic election as Mexico's first female president marks a significant milestone for the nation. With her election, Mexico embarks on a new era of leadership, characterized by her unique blend of scientific expertise, political acumen, and dedication to social progress. Let's get a deeper understanding of her background, her political legacy, and the challenges she faces as she steps into this groundbreaking role.

Claudia Sheinbaum comes to the presidency with a stronger academic and international base than López Obrador and with the support of a considerable number of voters. But the challenges she faces are greater, money is scarcer and she has a predecessor who is hard to beat: AMLO, as López Obrador is known, is arguably the country's most popular and successful president since revolutionary leader Lázaro Cárdenas, who led Mexico from 1934 to 1940.

With the easier part of wealth redistribution now complete, Sheinbaum must turn her attention to more controversial areas, such as raising taxes to fund the expansion of public services. At the same time, she must reassure foreign investors and show them that their money is safe in a country that is seeking radical constitutional changes that some fear could pave the way for a one-party government along the lines of the old PRI. Their mandate promises to be a complicated balancing act.

Who is Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's new president?

Claudia Sheinbaum, former governor of Mexico City, will be the first woman to govern Mexico in the country's more than 200 years of independence. She won a landslide victory - by around 30 points - in an election seen as a referendum on the left-wing populist policies of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, her mentor.

Sheinbaum, 61, grew up in a Jewish family as an adopted daughter in the left-liberal upper middle class in Mexico City. Her mother was a biology teacher and her father a chemical engineer.

Sheinbaum's grandparents were Lithuanian and Bulgarian Jewish immigrants who fled persecution in Europe at the beginning of the 20th century. Sheinbaum remembers celebrating Jewish holidays at her grandparents' house as a girl, but emphasizes that she was raised secularly. Her Jewish background was not an issue during the election campaign.

This makes Claudia Sheinbaum not only the first woman president in Mexico, but also the first of Jewish faith in a nation with a large Catholic majority.

Academic Background

Claudia Sheinbaum's impressive academic credentials set the foundation for her multifaceted career. She holds a degree in Physics and pursued advanced studies in Energy Engineering, earning both a master's and a doctorate from the University of California, Berkeley. During her time in the Bay Area, Sheinbaum studied energy efficiency at Stanford University and the University of California at Berkeley. She also conducted postdoctoral research at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Sheinbaum, who holds a doctorate from the National University of Mexico. She is reserved and is known for writing her own speeches.

During her campaign for the presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum argued conspicuously often with scientific and academic arguments. Her deep commitment to scientific research and knowledge has been a driving force throughout her career, influencing her policies and leadership style.

Mayor of Mexico City

On July 1, 2018, Sheinbaum was elected for a six-year term as mayor of Mexico City, beating six other candidates. She was the first woman to be elected to lead one of the world's largest metropolitan areas with over 9 million inhabitants.

Until 2023, Sheinbaum served as the Mayor of Mexico City, a tenure marked by significant urban development, environmental sustainability, and social welfare initiatives. As a climate scientist, she prioritized combating climate change and enhancing the city's resilience. Her tenure saw the implementation of policies aimed at improving the quality of life for millions of residents, setting the stage for her national leadership.

The challenges for Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico are enormous

Mexicans opted for the promise of continuity in President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's crusade for social justice. The secret of Claudia Sheinbaum's landslide victory in Mexico's presidential election on Sunday can be summed up succinctly: social justice.

The poorest Mexicans are the big winners under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has more than doubled the minimum wage and expanded social welfare programs, even though the economy has barely grown per capita since he took office in 2018.

Voters overlooked the alarming number of violent crimes and fears about the erosion of democratic institutions. They preferred to reward Sheinbaum, a close ally of the left-wing nationalist president, for her promise to continue and deepen her crusade for social justice in a country with high levels of poverty and inequality.

After 30 years of free trade with the US and Canada, the north of Mexico has prospered, but very little of that wealth has reached the center and south of the country or the lower income groups.

This election is another very important reality shock for many Mexicans of the old elite who need to better understand that Mexico needs to change its prevailing culture of privilege.

The scale of Sheinbaum's victory - some 30 percentage points ahead of her nearest challenger, center-right candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, according to the official partial results - gives her a strong personal authority. The election victory also increases the likelihood that the main opposition alliance, which is made up of three largely discredited parties, will dissolve as it faces a long period of almost no political influence.

Parallelism with Argentina

This alliance, led by the PRI party, has governed Mexico over the last seven decades. It has mostly followed a political program geared towards the traditional elites, coupled with a neoliberal narrative. This form of government has led to the entrenchment of corruption and the latent rise to power of the drug cartels. In the way the PRI governed Mexico, there is a certain parallel to the Argentine Peronists over the last seven decades. In Argentina, too, the traditional elites have been massively favored, fueled by a periodic narrative shift between nationalist, socialist and ultra-right-wing liberal orientations.

The opposition coalition is a total failure

Its leaders have lost their legitimacy and the parties have no other big names around which to regroup. It is more likely that they will continue to shrink.

Constitutional reform - a threat to Check & Balance?

Claudia Sheinbaum's party, the Morena, and its two main allies, the Labor Party and the PVEM, have also secured a large majority in Congress and are well on their way to achieving the two-thirds majority needed to push through constitutional changes. The congressional calculations are important because López Obrador has put forward 20 proposals for constitutional reforms that he wants to pass before he leaves office in September. These include direct elections of Supreme Court judges, the abolition of some independent institutions, an annual increase in the minimum wage in line with inflation (example Belgium) and changes to strengthen the state pension system.

It is very likely that the constitutional reforms will be implemented quickly, as Sheinbaum supported them in his election campaign. Investors are not too concerned about the deterioration of institutions as the reforms do not change the basic concept of the Mexican constitution. Most investors follow the assessment that Claudia Sheinbaum's big victory will give her more tools to govern when the economy deteriorates, while the contamination of the economy by institutional deterioration will only occur in the medium term. In the business community, the assumption so far is that these reforms may well increase the government's agility to respond to crises.

The whole big problem - violence and the public budget

Mexico has other serious problems. During López Obrador's presidency, nearly 220,000 people have been murdered or disappeared, and criminal groups have expanded their control over the country and lucrative parts of the economy.

But the problem of the drug cartels - the mother of organized crime - has been present for decades and has eaten deep into the Mexican structure. The root lies in the seven-decade-long unity government under the PRI party. On the Mexican side, some of the traditional elites have simply made too much money from drug-related crime for too long, and the situation on the North American side was not much different. The opiate scandals in North America highlight the role of drug industry supply chains. The problem is structural and cannot be solved unilaterally by Mexico. Only if North America and Europe pull together and attack the entire value chain of the drug cartels in The Americas and the Atlantic region can we begin to solve the problem.

The election campaign promises of the opposition alliance of PRI, PAN and PRO with candidate Xochitl Gálvez in particular show strikingly how little integral awareness of the problem of the drug cartels has so far been present among the originators of the problem. The only answer was to create a national guard. Mexican voters did not fall for that. After so many generations, we know very well what doesn't work and how complex the issue is.

Money will be scarce

López Obrador abandoned his commitment to fiscal discipline in his last year in office and spent a lot of money on his infrastructure projects and more funds on social programs. Sheinbaum will have to close a budget gap of almost 6% of GDP while fulfilling promises to increase spending on health, education and social welfare. And although the former climate scientist promises to promote renewable energy, she has also made it clear that the state will maintain its control over the energy sector and its costly support for Pemex, the ailing state oil company. However, it can be assumed that a reform program will also be introduced here.

Relations with the big brother to the north

The complex and delicate relationship with the US will be a major problem, especially in the event of a victory for former President Donald Trump in the November elections. Republican frontrunner Trump has already promised to increase tariffs and crack down on illegal immigration if he wins the election. The USMCA agreement will be renegotiated in 2026. If Donald Trump is then the current president, considerable upheavals can be expected in the course of the negotiations.

Political Legacy and Ideas

Continuing the Fourth Transformation (4T)

Sheinbaum aligns closely with the political vision of her mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). The Fourth Transformation, or 4T, aims to separate economic power from political power and emphasizes social programs that have significantly reduced poverty in Mexico. Sheinbaum is committed to building on these changes, focusing on expanding rights, enhancing the welfare state, and ensuring fair wages for all.

Clean Energy and Climate Action

A staunch advocate for environmental sustainability, Sheinbaum proposes accelerating Mexico's transition to clean energy. Her administration is expected to prioritize renewable energy sources and implement policies to reduce the nation's carbon footprint, continuing her legacy of climate action from her tenure as mayor.

Gender Equality and LGBTQ Rights

Sheinbaum is a fervent supporter of gender equality and LGBTQ rights. Her presidency will likely see initiatives aimed at closing gender gaps and strengthening protections and opportunities for LGBTQ individuals. She envisions a Mexico where substantive equality for all is a reality.

Education and Social Welfare

Education is a cornerstone of Sheinbaum's vision. She aims to improve access to quality education for all Mexicans and extend her commitment to social welfare to healthcare, housing, and economic security. Her policies will likely focus on creating a more inclusive and equitable society.

Challenges Ahead

As Mexico's first female president, Sheinbaum faces several unique challenges:

Gender Bias and Stereotypes

Sheinbaum will encounter gender bias and stereotypes that may undermine her authority. Overcoming these biases requires resilience and a consistent demonstration of her capabilities.

Expectations and Scrutiny

As a trailblazer, Sheinbaum will be under intense scrutiny. Her decisions, policies, and actions will be closely watched, with any misstep potentially magnified. Navigating this pressure while staying true to her vision for Mexico is essential.

Balancing Family and Leadership

Balancing family responsibilities with presidential duties is a common challenge for women in leadership. Effective time management will be crucial for Sheinbaum to fulfill both her professional and personal commitments.

Breaking the Glass Ceiling

Sheinbaum's success will pave the way for future generations of women in Mexican politics. She carries the responsibility of breaking the glass ceiling and demonstrating that women can lead effectively at the highest levels of government.

Addressing Gender Inequality

Her presidency provides an opportunity to address gender inequality in Mexico. Sheinbaum can champion policies that promote women's rights, equal pay, and representation, though she will face resistance from traditionalists.

Navigating Male-Dominated Spaces

Politics remains predominantly male-dominated. Sheinbaum will need to assert herself, collaborate with male counterparts, and build alliances. Her ability to forge relationships across party lines will be crucial.

Handling Misogyny and Sexism

Misogyny and sexism are unfortunate realities for women in power. Sheinbaum must rise above such negativity and focus on her goals, responding gracefully to criticism while maintaining her resolve.

Ensuring Inclusivity

Sheinbaum's leadership should be inclusive, representing diverse voices. She must actively seek input from women, LGBTQ+ individuals, and marginalized communities, balancing competing interests and ensuring fair representation.

Health and Well-Being

The stress of leadership can impact physical and mental health. Prioritizing self-care is crucial for Sheinbaum to sustain her energy and focus. Seeking support from trusted advisors and maintaining a healthy work-life balance is essential.

Immigration and Border Relations

Claudia Sheinbaum faces significant challenges related to immigration and border relations:

Managing Migration

Mexico shares a long and often contentious border with the United States. Sheinbaum's approach to migration will likely prioritize humanitarian concerns while addressing security and economic implications. Engaging in dialogue with U.S. officials will be key to finding common ground on issues such as asylum seekers and border enforcement.

U.S.-Mexico Relations

Sheinbaum inherits a complex relationship with the United States. Trade, security, and immigration are intertwined issues that require careful navigation. Fostering cooperation on shared challenges, including drug trafficking and cross-border crime, will be crucial.

Human Rights and Asylum Seekers

Expect Sheinbaum to emphasize human rights and dignity in her approach to immigration. She will likely advocate for fair treatment of asylum seekers and balance border security with compassion.

Addressing Root Causes

Sheinbaum is committed to addressing the root causes of migration by improving economic opportunities within Mexico. Investing in education, job creation, and social programs aims to reduce the push factors driving people to seek better lives elsewhere.

Cooperation with Central American Countries

Mexico plays a crucial role in managing migration flows from Central America. Strengthening ties with countries like Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador can help address poverty, violence, and corruption, reducing migration pressures.

Border Security and Trade

Balancing security concerns with facilitating trade and economic growth will be a priority. Enhancing border infrastructure and streamlining customs procedures will be essential for safe cross-border movement of goods.

Views on Trade Agreements

Sheinbaum holds nuanced views on trade agreements like NAFTA and its successor, the USMCA:

USMCA and Continuity

Sheinbaum recognizes the importance of maintaining continuity in trade relations between North American countries. The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, aims to enhance economic cooperation and promote fair trade practices. She is likely to prioritize these objectives.

2026 Revisions and Considerations

In 2026, the USMCA will undergo its first mandatory review. Sheinbaum believes certain aspects should be considered, including migration and genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in agriculture.

Energy Sector Dispute

The USMCA touches on Mexico's energy sector. If Mexico's energy policy contravenes the agreement, it could impact the country's integration with North America. Navigating this balance will be crucial for Sheinbaum's administration.

Economic Competitiveness

While supporting the USMCA, Sheinbaum's administration may explore ways to enhance Mexico's position in the global market, emphasizing economic competitiveness.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Legacy …

Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) leaves behind a complex legacy, influencing Sheinbaum's approach to governance:

The Fourth Transformation

AMLO envisioned his presidency as the "Fourth Transformation" in Mexican history, aiming to transform politics, the economy, and security. The impact of these changes remains a subject of debate.

Economic Policies

AMLO implemented progressive economic measures, including raising the minimum wage and reducing income inequality. His administration's embrace of austerity to root out corruption and restore faith in the state remains contentious.

Military's Role

AMLO increased the power of the Mexican armed forces, using them in government works and security operations. This has drawn criticism and raised concerns about democratic institutions.

Challenges and Popularity

Despite controversies, AMLO's approval ratings remain remarkably high, above 60 percent. His popularity contrasts with declining numbers for other progressive leaders in Latin America.

Conclusion

Claudia Sheinbaum's historic victory as Mexico's first female president-elect represents a significant milestone for the nation. As she steps into the National Palace, she carries the hopes of millions, ready to shape the nation's future with her unique blend of scientific expertise, political acumen, and dedication to social progress. Her presidency involves not only policy decisions but also breaking barriers and reshaping perceptions, defining her legacy and inspiring future leaders.